Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $2,237$ on 2020-05-21
Best fit exponential: \(388 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,171.8}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 37.2)}}\) (asimptote \(2,171.8\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $97$ on 2020-05-21
Best fit exponential: \(11.9 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{102.0}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 35.7)}}\) (asimptote \(102.0\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $162$ on 2020-05-21
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $30,694$ on 2020-05-21
Best fit exponential: \(7.37 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,914.0}{1 + 10^{-0.064 (t - 30.9)}}\) (asimptote \(29,914.0\))
Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,898$ on 2020-05-21
Best fit exponential: \(297 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,867.0}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 36.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,867.0\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $896$ on 2020-05-21
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $228,006$ on 2020-05-21
Best fit exponential: \(3.74 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{222,361.5}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 41.5)}}\) (asimptote \(222,361.5\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $32,486$ on 2020-05-21
Best fit exponential: \(4.54 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{31,437.9}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 43.2)}}\) (asimptote \(31,437.9\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $60,960$ on 2020-05-21
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,577,147$ on 2020-05-21
Best fit exponential: \(1.39 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,589,475.4}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 45.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,589,475.4\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $94,702$ on 2020-05-21
Best fit exponential: \(7.72 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{95,348.6}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 43.8)}}\) (asimptote \(95,348.6\))
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,184,027$ on 2020-05-21
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $252,246$ on 2020-05-21
Best fit exponential: \(1.87 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{262,156.7}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 49.7)}}\) (asimptote \(262,156.7\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $36,124$ on 2020-05-21
Best fit exponential: \(3.61 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,242.0}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 40.7)}}\) (asimptote \(35,242.0\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $214,988$ on 2020-05-21
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $32,172$ on 2020-05-21
Best fit exponential: \(2.12 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,780.8}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 56.2)}}\) (asimptote \(34,780.8\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $3,871$ on 2020-05-21
Best fit exponential: \(332 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(18.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,927.9}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 41.7)}}\) (asimptote \(3,927.9\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $23,330$ on 2020-05-21
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $179,021$ on 2020-05-21
Best fit exponential: \(3.42 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{170,981.0}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 34.3)}}\) (asimptote \(170,981.0\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $8,203$ on 2020-05-21
Best fit exponential: \(1.14 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,060.6}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 34.6)}}\) (asimptote \(8,060.6\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $12,731$ on 2020-05-21