Please read the README file in this repository.

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Croatia⮸

Population $4,105,267$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,237$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(388 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,171.8}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 37.2)}}\) (asimptote \(2,171.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $97$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(11.9 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{102.0}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 35.7)}}\) (asimptote \(102.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $162$ on 2020-05-21

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $30,694$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(7.37 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,914.0}{1 + 10^{-0.064 (t - 30.9)}}\) (asimptote \(29,914.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,898$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(297 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,867.0}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 36.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,867.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $896$ on 2020-05-21

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $228,006$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(3.74 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{222,361.5}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 41.5)}}\) (asimptote \(222,361.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $32,486$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(4.54 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{31,437.9}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 43.2)}}\) (asimptote \(31,437.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $60,960$ on 2020-05-21

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,577,147$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(1.39 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,589,475.4}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 45.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,589,475.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $94,702$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(7.72 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{95,348.6}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 43.8)}}\) (asimptote \(95,348.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,184,027$ on 2020-05-21

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $252,246$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(1.87 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{262,156.7}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 49.7)}}\) (asimptote \(262,156.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $36,124$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(3.61 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,242.0}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 40.7)}}\) (asimptote \(35,242.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $214,988$ on 2020-05-21

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $32,172$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(2.12 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,780.8}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 56.2)}}\) (asimptote \(34,780.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,871$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(332 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(18.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,927.9}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 41.7)}}\) (asimptote \(3,927.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $23,330$ on 2020-05-21

Germany⮸

Population $83,783,942$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $179,021$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(3.42 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{170,981.0}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 34.3)}}\) (asimptote \(170,981.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $8,203$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(1.14 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,060.6}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 34.6)}}\) (asimptote \(8,060.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $12,731$ on 2020-05-21

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Slovenia recovered 98%
New Zealand recovered 97%
Switzerland recovered 94%
Austria recovered 91%
Korea, South recovered 91%
Australia recovered 89%
Croatia recovered 87%
Andorra recovered 86%
Tunisia recovered 85%
Germany recovered 83%
Niger recovered 78%
Slovakia recovered 78%
Denmark recovered 75%
Cuba recovered 73%
Israel recovered 73%
Uruguay recovered 58%
Turkey recovered 58%
Malaysia recovered 56%
Lithuania recovered 54%
Czechia recovered 53%
Italy recovered 44%
Bosnia and Herzegovina recovered 39%
Georgia recovered 39%
Serbia recovered 32%
Romania recovered 24%
San Marino recovered 20%
Jamaica recovered 19%
Morocco recovered 18%
Singapore recovered 15%
France recovered 9%

Slovenia⮸

Population $2,078,938$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,468$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(454 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,452.7}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 24.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,452.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $106$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(18.8 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{103.1}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 30.8)}}\) (asimptote \(103.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $22$ on 2020-05-21

New Zealand⮸

Population $4,822,233$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,504$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(408 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,480.6}{1 + 10^{-0.098 (t - 26.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,480.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $21$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(5.24 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{21.0}{1 + 10^{-0.098 (t - 20.6)}}\) (asimptote \(21.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $28$ on 2020-05-21

Austria⮸

Population $9,006,398$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $16,404$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(4.21 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(35.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{15,555.8}{1 + 10^{-0.077 (t - 28.3)}}\) (asimptote \(15,555.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $633$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(121 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{627.2}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 30.8)}}\) (asimptote \(627.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $820$ on 2020-05-21

Korea, South⮸

Population $51,269,185$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $11,142$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(5.44 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(72.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,559.6}{1 + 10^{-0.065 (t - 15.5)}}\) (asimptote \(10,559.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $264$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(69.3 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{262.2}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 33.0)}}\) (asimptote \(262.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $716$ on 2020-05-21